I’m not an epidemiologist. But I can do basic arithmetic. Follow me on this.
If 40% of the world population becomes infected with this novel coronavirus, that’s 3 billion people. 40% of 7.8 billion is 3.12 billion. So about 3 billion people will be infected with this virus.
Not everyone who gets the virus becomes ill. Perhaps it’s only 10% of people who do. Ten percent of 3 billion is of course 300 million. 300 million people will get sick with coronavirus disease 2019, or “COVID-19.”
Obviously not everyone who becomes sick with COVID-19 dies. Some say it may only be only 2% who do. 2% of 300 million is 6 million. That’s six million fatalities from COVID-19 worldwide.
The United States represents about 4.25% of the world population. If one assumes that the fatality rate is about the same here as it is in other countries we should have our 4.25% of the fatalities. 4.25% of 6 million is 255,000. That’s 255,000 deaths in the United States from coronavirus infections.
Influenza kills between 12,000 and 61,000, according to the CDC. That’s not even 25% of our COVID-19 fatalities as calculated above. So, unless my assumptions, my information, my numbers, or my math is wrong–and any of them surely could be–we’re in for a hell of a ride.
Final thought. The population of West Bend is about 32,000. That’s about 0.01% of the whole US population. And 0.01% of 255,000 is 25.